The perfect storm is such a useful metaphor that it’s almost irrestible, so I can’t really blame Bishop Stephen Talmage for using it in his address this morning. This past year, he said, was a perfect storm for the synod.
The weather conditions at sea were already choppy. We are a denomination dominated by congregations in decline, he pointed out. Our membership is aging; the primary focus for building membership in many congregations is survival rather than discipleship; the cost of ministry is rising; we are plagued with continuing decline in worship participation.
But then the storm hit. The shake-out from last summer’s sexuality vote was a 30-foot wave. So far, Talmage reported, five Grand Canyon congregations have left the ELCA. Two more have taken a first vote to withdraw, and will most likely affirm that decision in upcoming meetings. Another church is about to begin the process and the expectation is that they will leave as well. Two more synod congregations are still ELCA, but have been severely disrupted, he reported, and a new mission development project was closed after the pastor/developer resigned from the ELCA. And then there is the recession — economists say it’s over but it sure doesn’t feel like it — with unemployment, foreclosures and bankruptcies.
So, looking ahead, what are the trends? According to the bishop:
- Church participation is declining — in 1990 20.6 percent of Americans were in worship regularly; today it’s 17.3 and by 2020 it is expected to be 14.7.
- Americans say they are spiritual but decreasingly religious. In 1990, 86 percent claimed an affiliation with a church; today it is 76 percent.
- We are increasingly individualistic — it is ‘all about us.’ Dual careers, family, youth sports, all put powerful demands on our time. We are less and less willing to make commitments and connections to social structures like churches.
- When families no longer connect with churches, children lose the example of a mother and father who follow Jesus — a predictor of faith as those children grow up.
- Our communities are getting more diverse, ethnically and religiously — and it scares us.
- The Latino community is growing. This group, predominantly Roman Catholic (or at least they say they are), has a building interest in charismatic worship, and shows a strong preference for worshipping communities that are Latino.
- There is a new stage of life, “emerging adulthood” — the 18-30 year olds. They are looking for a different experience — if they go to church at all. 25 percent list “no church offiliation” when asked.
- Then there are post-boomer innovators: the emerging church advocates (worship at a bar or coffee shop), the “appropriators” (who try to make worship more relevant to the dominant culture), the “reclaimers” (back to candles and incense), and the “resisters” (need I explain?).
- It’s a digital world, and many churches are using the web and social networking. Yet there is a segment of non-adopters who stil look for paper communications. And at the end of the day, many of us are on information overload.
Each bullet point could be looked at as a challenge — or an opportunity. So how do we respond? One way is despair and defeat. Or, as Talmage said, we can “declare our faith so loud that the neighbors complain.”
His next image was about boats, too. Is ours the boat crushed by arctic ice, and we the traumatized survivors? Or are we the Titanic, torn open by an iceberg that exposed our hubris? Or the Mayflower, that sails toward the horizon and an unknown future?
